A systematic approach to identifying future environmental threats and opportunities before they become mainstream concerns
Explore the FindingsWhat if we could see around the corners of time? What if scientists had a collective crystal ball allowing them to spot emerging environmental threats and opportunities before they become mainstream concerns?
This isn't science fiction—it's the fascinating practice of horizon scanning, a systematic approach to detecting early signals of change that could reshape our world.
In July 2017, a diverse international team of researchers published their eighth annual horizon scan of emerging issues for global conservation and biological diversity. This rigorous exercise, officially documented as Publication No. 17-049, identified 15 novel developments with potential to create significant ripple effects across ecosystems worldwide 2 . These weren't current headlines, but weak signals of change that might either become future conservation game-changers or pose unprecedented threats to global biodiversity.
Examining issues with worldwide implications for biodiversity
International team with diverse expertise and perspectives
Identifying emerging issues not yet widely recognized
Horizon scanning represents a sophisticated approach to future thinking that goes beyond mere prediction. According to the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, it's "a technique for detecting early signs of potentially important developments through a systematic examination of potential threats and opportunities, with emphasis on new technology and its effects on the issue at hand" 1 .
Think of it as an early warning system for society—a way to spot the barely-visible trends and innovations that could dramatically alter our future landscape. Unlike traditional forecasting which often extrapolates from existing data, horizon scanning actively looks for discontinuities and surprises that could redefine what's possible.
| Aspect | Horizon Scanning | Traditional Forecasting |
|---|---|---|
| Timeframe | 10-20 years in future 1 | Usually near-term (1-5 years) |
| Focus | Weak signals and emerging issues 1 | Existing trends and data |
| Uncertainty | Embraces ambiguity and unknowns | Seeks to reduce uncertainty |
| Outcome | Preparedness and resilience | Predictions and projections |
| Method | Systematic examination of multiple sources | Statistical modeling |
The value of horizon scanning lies not in making perfect predictions, but in helping ensure that "policies are resilient to different future environments" 1 . It's about asking "what if" to avoid being caught off guard—a systematic investigation of evidence about future trends that helps governments and organizations analyze whether they're adequately prepared for potential opportunities and threats.
The horizon scan we're examining wasn't the work of a lone researcher gazing into a teacup. It represented the collective intelligence of a diverse international team with expertise spanning horizon scanning methodology, science communication, and conservation research, practice, and policy 2 . This collaborative approach brought together perspectives from different disciplines and geographical regions, creating a more comprehensive lookout post for emerging issues.
This was actually the team's eighth consecutive annual scan, meaning they had refined their process through years of practice. Their mission was specifically focused on global biological diversity, the environment, and conservation efforts—a critical area where early warning can mean the difference between protecting a species and witnessing its extinction.
The team followed a rigorous process to identify issues that were genuinely novel and emerging—topics that the broader conservation community might not yet fully recognize or understand. These weren't established problems like climate change or habitat destruction (as critical as those are), but rather new developments whose potential effects were just beginning to ripple through the complex web of global ecosystems.
This was the eighth consecutive year of this international horizon scanning exercise, building on years of methodological refinement.
The team brought together specialists from multiple disciplines and geographic regions to ensure comprehensive coverage.
The process behind the 2017 horizon scan was both systematic and iterative, designed to surface the most potentially significant developments from a sea of possibilities. The research team employed a methodology similar to what the UK Government Office for Science describes: an iterative cycle of scanning, analyzing, synthesizing, and communicating information 1 .
The team began by reviewing approximately 100 potential issues drawn from diverse sources including scientific literature, policy documents, technology reports, and expert networks. This casting of a wide net ensured they didn't miss signals from unconventional places.
A diverse international team with collective expertise in relevant fields assessed each potential issue. The UK Government Office for Science emphasizes that "expert input from a variety of credible sources is critical to the success of a horizon-scanning process" 1 .
Each issue was evaluated based on factors such as novelty, potential impact on biodiversity, scale of effect, and probability of emergence. The focus was specifically on issues that were not yet widely recognized by the conservation community.
Through discussion and debate, the initial list was whittled down to the 15 issues deemed most significant. The researchers looked for developments that could represent either opportunities or threats to global conservation.
The final step involved packaging and presenting these findings in an accessible format for policymakers, researchers, and conservation practitioners 2 .
| Stage | Activity | Output |
|---|---|---|
| Scanning | Systematic examination of multiple information sources | Long list of potential issues (≈100) |
| Analysis | Assessing issues against predefined criteria | Filtered list of emerging issues |
| Synthesis | Integrating perspectives, identifying connections | Refined list of top issues (15) |
| Communication | Packaging results for decision-makers | Published report and recommendations |
This methodology represents what the National Academies describe as integrating horizon scanning into a "broader foresight framework" 1 —not just identifying what's coming, but understanding its implications and potential policy responses.
The 2017 horizon scan surfaced 15 emerging issues with potential to significantly affect global biodiversity. These findings represented a mix of technological innovations, environmental changes, and socioeconomic developments that conservationists needed to have on their radar.
Among the most notable issues identified were several that have indeed shown growing relevance in the years since the scan:
The scan identified the potential for blockchain—the distributed ledger technology behind cryptocurrencies—to be applied to conservation challenges. The researchers envisioned it might be used to create transparent supply chains that could help combat illegal fishing and wildlife trafficking by providing tamper-proof records of product origins. This represented an early example of how technologies developing outside the conservation field might be harnessed for environmental protection.
While coastal sand mining was already a known issue in some regions, the scan highlighted how increasing global demand for construction sand was becoming a previously underappreciated threat to marine and coastal ecosystems. The scale of extraction was affecting sediment transport, water turbidity, and critical habitats in ways that conservation biologists were only beginning to quantify.
With coral reefs worldwide experiencing unprecedented bleaching events due to ocean warming, the scan identified several emerging technological interventions being explored. These included developing strains of temperature-resistant corals and materials that could create temporary shade over vulnerable reefs. These approaches represented a shift from simply documenting damage to actively exploring interventions to boost reef resilience.
The scan noted rapid developments in battery technology and artificial photosynthesis that could significantly alter the energy landscape. While potentially beneficial for reducing fossil fuel dependence, the researchers also considered possible unintended consequences for conservation—such as increased mining for battery components or competition between biofuel crops and natural habitats.
| Emerging Issue | Potential Impact | Nature of Effect |
|---|---|---|
| Blockchain for Conservation | High | Opportunity |
| Sand Extraction | Medium-High | Threat |
| Coral Bleaching Solutions | Medium | Opportunity |
| Energy Storage Advances | Medium | Mixed |
| Marine Invasive Species Control | Medium | Opportunity |
| Solar Fuel Production | Medium | Mixed |
The researchers carefully considered whether each issue represented primarily a threat to be mitigated, an opportunity to be harnessed, or a development with ambiguous implications that required monitoring. This nuanced approach allowed for more sophisticated policy responses than simple binary categorization.
While horizon scanning itself doesn't typically involve laboratory experiments, it relies on a distinct set of methodological tools and information sources that constitute its own form of "research toolkit." These are the essential resources that enable effective scanning of emerging environmental issues.
Provides specialized knowledge across disciplines
Reveals emerging research trends
Signals government priorities and concerns
Highlights innovative developments
Enables consistent issue assessment
Facilitates expert dialogue and consensus-building
This toolkit represents what the National Academies describe as drawing on both "machine-readable sources" and "expert opinion" 1 —a combination of technological assistance and human judgment that together can spot signals machines or people alone might miss.
The 2017 horizon scan of emerging issues for global conservation represents more than just a list of potential future developments. It exemplifies a systematic approach to navigating uncertainty in a world where ecological surprises are increasingly common.
By identifying everything from blockchain applications to sand extraction threats, the scan provided conservationists, policymakers, and researchers with a valuable head start in preparing for both the challenges and opportunities on the horizon.
Nearly a decade later, the issues identified in this scan continue to resonate. Some, like blockchain applications for supply chain transparency, have evolved in ways both predicted and unexpected. Others, like the threats posed by extensive sand mining, have indeed emerged as significant conservation concerns in multiple regions worldwide.
The future isn't a predetermined destination we passively arrive at, but rather a landscape we can help shape through proactive engagement with emerging possibilities.
In the words of the UK Cabinet Office, horizon scanning helps ensure that policies are "resilient to different future environments" 1 —preparing not for one predetermined future, but for multiple possible futures.
The practice continues today, with new horizon scans published annually, each building on the methodology refined in exercises like the 2017 scan. In an era of rapid environmental change, this systematic approach to peering into the future remains one of conservation's most valuable tools for navigating the uncertain terrain ahead.